IPCA is expected to reach 3.6% in 2024.
The Central Bank adopted a more hawkish tone in the minutes than in the previous communication, but we still project a terminal Selic rate of 8.75%.
In this regard, the January IPCA (0.42%) brought little surprise compared to our projection (0.39%), despite the headline being much more pressured than expected by the market (0.34%). Thus, we revised our 2024 projection to 3.6%, still with a downward bias.
The main risk remains the external scenario. Internally, political news remains on the radar, but there has been no change in our fiscal projections.
For more information, please check our Weekly Report 50.
