We expect the Central Bank to keep the interest rate at 10.50% in the next COPOM decision – 09/13
Since the last meeting, considering the alternative scenario of a constant Selic rate, the evolution of the variables observed by the Central Bank would bring the inflation model close to the target in the relevant horizon of March 2026. Thus, we believe that the COPOM decision should follow the committee’s commitments to technical aspects, and we understand that the Central Bank will opt for greater predictability, without losing one of its main communication tools for a cycle of credibility. While our expectation is for stability, we recognize that the probability of an increase is significant. However, we believe that the arguments for maintaining the rate will prevail, especially focusing on the technical approach. Finally, in terms of communication, we believe the committee should endorse a hawkish tone. The Central Bank is likely to clarify that both monetary policy options, maintaining or raising the interest rate, were debated, although the decision should be made unanimously.
For more information, please check our Weekly Report 81.
