After continuous upward surprises in previous quarters, the growth in the fourth quarter was lower than expected (07/03)
After continuous upward surprises in previous quarters, the growth in the quarter was lower than expected. In annual terms, growth was up 3.4%, with a downward trend in openings that are more sensitive to the monetary policy cycle, which should be relevant for the Central Bank when it holds its next meetings. Although it doesn’t indicate an abrupt slowdown in the current year, the observation is relevant given the concern attributed by the Central Bank to weaker-than-expected activity dynamics in its balance of risks.
Under pressure from falling popularity, the government announces measures to try to reduce food prices. The main proposal aims to zero the import tax on nine items, especially meat, coffee, corn and sugar. Although the measure includes important items in the average person’s basket, the share of domestic consumption coming from imports is quite small, which may not have such a significant impact on consumer inflation.
In the United States, Trump backs down again on import tariffs for Mexico and Canada, while the labor market surprises to the downside. After reiterating the implementation of import tariffs on Mexico and Canada for March 4th, President Donald Trump agreed to postpone the application of tariffs for another month, now expected for April 2nd. Although Trump has shown himself to be more willing to negotiate, the US government’s stance is still very much one of strengthening security and domestic trade. In the labor market, Payroll data was more constructive from a monetary policy perspective, indicating a less pressured labor market in 2025.
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