Our view: Margin growth was in line with our expectations and slightly below the market. In terms of composition, the figure was marked by a higher contribution from agriculture, with more cyclical components showing more moderate numbers. Considering GDP excluding agriculture, growth was around 0.5% QoQ, below the IBC-Br estimate (1.0% QoQ). From the demand side, domestic absorption stood out, especially household consumption and investments. From a monetary policy perspective, the data does not generate additional surprises for the Central Bank, particularly given official communications that had already attributed greater dynamism to agriculture in this release. Thus, we understand that the plan to maintain the interest rate at the next June meeting remains unchanged.
Q1 2025 GDP grew 1.4% QoQ s.a., in line with our projections (1.4%) and slightly below the market median (1.5%). In year-on-year comparison, growth was 2.9% (est. 3.1%; BSB: 2.9%) and 3.5% in the four-quarter accumulated figure.
Additionally, data for Q4 2024 underwent downward revisions, moving from 0.2% to 0.1% QoQ. Meanwhile, Q2 and Q3 2025 were revised upwards, from 1.3% to 1.5% QoQ and from 0.7% to 0.8% QoQ, respectively.
Production perspective: On the margin, the agriculture sector was the main highlight, sustaining strong GDP growth by expanding 12.2% in the quarter, influenced by expectations of a record harvest for the year. Additionally, the services sector contributed positively, especially information services (which have shown significant dynamism in the first months of the year). On the opposite side, industry declined on the margin, particularly due to a drop in manufacturing. Excluding agriculture, GDP margin growth was 0.5%.
Expenditure perspective: From the demand side, domestic absorption stood out by growing 1.2% on the margin, with notable expansion in household consumption (1.04% QoQ) and gross fixed capital formation (3.13% QoQ), while government spending remained almost flat (0.07% QoQ).
External sector: In the external sector, the contribution was negative with both openings showing margin growth. Exports increased 2.9% QoQ after a decline in Q4 2024, while imports grew 5.91% QoQ.
With this result, the statistical carryover for 2025 is 2.2%, in line with our projections and slightly below the market. Considering early Q2 2025 results, especially in the labor market, our bias for the year’s growth projections (1.9%) is upward.
