Our View: The data confirms the negative result of the GDP in the third quarter, with slower dynamics in household consumption (mainly in services) and a greater decline in gross fixed capital formation. Although a monthly basis was stable compared to 2Q23, there was a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, close to our GDP expectation (1.7%). Thus, the result reinforces our expectation of a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP decline in the period.
The GDP Monitor showed stagnation on a monthly basis in 3Q23, with a 0.6% decrease month-on-month in September (0.8% year-on-year).
It is interesting to note that FGV made an effort to try to reconcile the GDP for 2021 revised by IBGE earlier in the month with the current series. In the calculations, the GDP for 2022 would be slightly revised upward, from 2.9% to 3.0%.
