Our view: The growth compared to 4Q24 was driven mainly by advances in Agriculture. As expected, Services showed positive performance in this first quarter, driven by increased consumer earnings seen in period surveys and better credit conditions. According to recent labor market data, we can expect the Services sector to continue its positive performance trend, while the Agriculture estimate may be slightly affected by the environmental crisis in Rio Grande do Sul.
The GDP of the first quarter of 2024 grew by 0.8% QoQ s.a., nearly in line with the market median and our projection (0.7%). Compared to the first quarter of 2023, there was an increase of 2.5%.
There was a downward revision for the last quarter of 2023 to -0.1% QoQ s.a. (from 0.0% QoQ s.a.).
Production perspective: Highlights include advances compared to the last quarter of 2023 in seasonally adjusted terms for Services (1.4%) and Agriculture (11.3%), while Industry remained nearly stable (-0.1%), reflecting negative performance in “Electricity and gas, water, sewage, waste management activities” (-1.6%), “Construction” (-0.5%), and “Extractive Industries” (-0.4%), while “Manufacturing Industry” advanced 0.7%.
Expenditure perspective: Compared to the last quarter of 2023 in seasonally adjusted terms, Household Consumption Expenditure and Gross Fixed Capital Formation advanced by 1.5% and 4.1% respectively. Government Consumption Expenditure was stable compared to the last quarter of 2023 (0.0%).
External sector: Compared to the last quarter of 2023 in seasonally adjusted terms, Exports of Goods and Services grew by 0.2%, as did Imports of Goods and Services, which advanced by 6.5%.
Statistical carry-over for 2024 is 1.0%.
For more information, please check our GDP Report.
