Our View: The divergence from projections and National Treasury data is explained by the exclusion of revenues from old, unclaimed PIS/Pasep accounts for the month (approximately R$ 26 billion). Also noteworthy is the negative performance of regional entities. For October, we expect a surplus, favored by the month’s seasonality.
R$ 18.1 billion deficit in September, marking a result well below expectations (Buysidebrazil: R$ 13.4 billion; Bloomberg: R$ 11.2 billion; Broadcast: R$ 9.6 billion). As a result, the accumulated deficit over 12 months rose to R$ 101.9 billion (-0.97% of GDP).
In the month, there was a deficit of R$ 16.5 billion for the Central Government, R$ 1.1 billion for regional governments, and R$ 0.5 billion for state-owned enterprises. We highlight the deficit of regional entities, which substantially contributed to the surplus in 2022 and are now recording a deficit for the year, due to a significant drop in revenues (mainly due to lower ICMS rates on fuels, energy, and telecom) and an acceleration of expenses (especially personnel).
The gross debt reached 74.4% of GDP in the period, reflecting nominal interest beyond the primary deficit. We expect it to continue to rise in the coming months.
