Data release: 10/28/2022
In October, the IGP-M registered a variation of -0.97%, below that expected by economists consulted by Bloomberg (-0.83%). This lower-than-expected result is due in part to the industrial wholesale price index (IPA-Ind), which, contrary to expectations, maintained the variation of the previous month and registered a deflation of 1.43%.
In the IPCA, industrial goods are the main ones responsible for the deceleration of inflation cores. This decompression process should continue in the coming months, as the core wholesale price index of industrial goods, which aims to measure the underlying inflation of the group, registered deflation of approximately 1% in this IGP-M. It is worth noting that the wholesale price index corresponds to the previous stage of the industrial production chain, i.e., it precedes the variation of the consumer price index.
This industrial goods dynamic cannot be ruled out, bearing in mind that the rise in cores observed over 2020/2021 was led precisely by this group and, at the time, it was what motivated the rise in the basic interest rate by the Brazilian central bank.
