Data Release: 10/25/2022
October’s IPCA-15 registered a variation of 0.16%, higher than expected by us (0.12%) and by the market (0.09%).
Services came in stronger than expected, especially on account of airfares (+28%; Est: 10%). Nevertheless, underlying services continue to decelerate in the seasonally adjusted data, which contributed to the decline in core inflation.
Food at home came in stronger than expected by the market average, especially on account of fresh food.
Durables also decelerated in the seasonally adjusted data, which is positive for industrial inflation.
We believe that if the next government is fiscally responsible, it will be possible to discuss an anticipated drop in interest rates next year (end of the first quarter of next year).
