Our view: Number in line with expectations, with positive composition, and with surprises already monitored in our scenario. Highlight the cooling on the margin of Underlying Services, a subgroup that was negatively pressuring the last releases.
The closed IPCA for February registered a 0.83% MoM increase, in line with our projection (0.83%) and above the market median (0.79%). Regarding our number, surprises were concentrated in Administered, with Gasoline stronger due to the total impact of the ICMS increase on fuels, which was already incorporated into our high-risk scenario. On the other hand, the rise in monitored was offset by a smaller variation in Industrial Goods and Services, especially in Clothing and Recreation, both impacting at -3bps.
In Underlying Services, we already incorporated a trajectory of cooling on the margin, and the effective number came even lower (0.44% against our projection of 0.49%). With this, we maintain that the pressure of underlying at the beginning of this year was due to punctual adjustments.
In-Home Food highlights the number of Natural Products in line with our projection, calibrated with price collections and CEASAS models.
The average of the cores was 0.50% compared to 0.56% of IPCA-15. More positive numbers due to Industrials and Services.
