Economists Mention ‘Fiscal Magic,’ ‘Bitter Taste,’ and Government’s ‘Low Sensitivity’ in Public Accounts Review
Link: https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2024/09/21/economistas-falam-em-matemagica-fiscal-gosto-amargo-e-baixa-sensibilidade-do-governo-em-revisao-das-contas-publicas.ghtml The downward revision in budget cuts was a negative surprise and may worsen the market's reaction. The government's bi-monthly review of the 2024 budget, presented yesterday,…
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BUYSIDEBRAZIL / ANDREA DAMICO: EXTERNAL INDUSTRY / JULY CONFIRMS WORSENING TREND IN C/C DEFICIT
Sao Paulo, 08/26/2024 - The July external industry result, released a little while ago by the Central Bank, confirms the worsening trend in the country's current account deficits, says Buysidebrazil…
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Buysidebrazil Revises Dollar Projection from R$5.20 to R$5.40 by End of 2024
Link: https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2024/07/05/buysidebrazil-altera-projeo-de-dlar-de-r-520-para-r-540-no-fim-de-2024.ghtml Weakening trade balance, political noise, and prolonged high interest rates in the U.S. are factors behind the revision. Due to the weakening balance of goods and…
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Ibovespa Rises 0.25% to 122.6K, Moving Against the Dollar and Future Interest Rates
Link: https://istoedinheiro.com.br/ibovespa-sobe-025-aos-1226-mil-na-contramao-do-dolar-e-dos-juros-futuros-2/ On a day marked by a well-contained June IPCA-15 (consumer price index) but also by statements from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticizing "Faria Lima" and…
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Fiscal at Risk: Health, Education, and Social Security Will Limit Investment Space in the Budget
Link: https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/noticia/2024/06/15/fiscal-em-risco-saude-e-educacao-e-previdencia-vao-tirar-espaco-de-investimento-no-orcamento.ghtml Experts warn that regardless of an improvement in the fiscal outcome, a cloudy horizon lies ahead. The agenda to improve public finances based on increasing revenue,…
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Minutes reinforce that votes for 0.50 pp followed technical criteria
By Francisco Carlos de Assis (Broadcast) São Paulo, 05/14/2024 - Although the COPOM (The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee) minutes had a rather harsh tone in their writing, according…
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Despite the split over the size of the cut in the Selic rate, directors of the Central Bank agree that interest rates should become more restrictive.
The committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) unanimously agreed that the more uncertain environment both domestically and internationally demands a more contractionary monetary policy, meaning a higher interest rate…
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Top 5 Fiscal Prism – Jan/24
We joyfully announce that Buysidebrazil has achieved a Top 5 position in the Nominal Result of the Central Government in the latest Fiscal Prism ranking from the Ministry of Finance.…
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Buysidebrazil reached the Focus top 5 for IPCA (CPI) in October/23.
It is with great joy that we communicate to our clients and partners that Buysidebrazil has achieved the Top 5 position in the Central Bank's Focus regarding short-term IPCA in…
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Top 5 – FOCUS Market Readout – Sep/23
Top 5 Focus Market Readout – Sep/23 We are delighted to share that Buysidebrazil has achieved the latest Short-Term IPCA Top 5 ranking for September/23. This is the first…
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Financial Times 08/02/2023
Financial Times 08/02/2023 Latin America’s central banks set to declare victory in the war on inflation Brazil, one of the nimblest and most aggressive emerging markets to raise interest rates,…
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Infomoney: 07/12/2023
Mild inflation in the US in June enhances the chance of the Fed delivering just one more hike on interest rates, analysts say Economists say FOMC’s pausing strategy gives time…
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Broadcast: 07/07/2023
Buysidebrazil now predicts a faster yield cut cycle with tax and revision/benchmark IPCA (Consumer Price Index) After a victorious week for the government in Congress, with the progress of measures…
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Valor Econômico: 06/28/2023
Copom’s minutes strengthen expectations for the beginning of Selic cuts in August Those who expected a Selic cut in September anticipated their projections, which were reflected in asset prices The…
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Broadcast: 06/29/2023
Buysidebrazil / Ariana Zerbinatti: We see a R$ 107,5 billion deficit for the Central Government by 2023 Buysidebrazil partner and senior economist Ariana Zerbinatti projects a primary deficit of R$…
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O Globo: 06/21/2023
Central Bank keeps Selic unaltered at 13.75%, does not indicate a cut in August, and asks for ‘patience and serenity The decision frustrates expectations of a brighter signaling from the…
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InfoMoney: 06/21/2023
Analysts highlight CB’s reading of “caution and parsimony”, but keep projection on cuts Opinion is that the Central Bank didn’t want to commit itself to a date at the beginning…
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CNN Brasil: 06/18/2023
CNN Brasil: 06/18/2023 Wholesale prices fell 7%, the largest drop in 28 years, and helped to lower interest rates In the view of economists, a strong deflation in commodity prices…
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CNN Brasil: 06/16/2023
CNN Brasil: 06/16/2023 Cheap dollar and cut in gas prices take to new round in revisions on inflation Banks and brokers are cutting projections on the 2023 IPCA as recent…
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Broadcast: 06/15/2023
Broadcast: 06/15/2023 Special: Real’s volatility drops to its lowest level since 2019 with Fiscal Framework and disinflation in the US The implied volatility of the Brazilian real has plummeted in…
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InfoMoney: 06/13/2023
InfoMoney: 06/13/2023 Fed’s pause in hikes might come with higher projections and harsher tones, analysts say Besides the decision, the market will observe if the voting was divided and if…
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InfoMoney: 06/07/2023
InfoMoney: 06/07/2023 A new positive surprise with the IPCE leaves room for the Central Bank to start cutting rates in August, analysts say Moderate food inflation and the slowdown…
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Valor Econômico: 06/02/2023
Valor Econômico: 06/02/2023 Weak industry in April indicates a continuity of deceleration in 2nd quarter, the economist evaluates Andrea Damico, partner, and chief economist of Armor Capital, believes that the…
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Broadcast: 04/24/2023
Broadcast: 04/24/2023 Special: Adjustments on spending predicted by the Fiscal Framework would only lose to Temer Administration’s performance Despite the market's negative sentiment towards the final version of the…
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Bloomberg Línea: 03/21/2023
Bloomberg Línea: 03/21/2023 Fiscal Framework: market’s doubts about the rules proposed by the government. To economists, the new fiscal rules aren’t enough to reach the projections shown by the…
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Veja: 17/03/2023
Veja: 17/03/2023 Despite the still significant pressure on services inflation in Brazil, economists agree that the economy is already in a disinflationary process. Chief economist at Armor Capital, Andrea…
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Valor Econômico (interview): 06/03/2023
Valor Econômico (interview): 06/03/2023 Brazil usually shows much higher core inflation than developed countries, partially due to an also higher inflation target, according to Andréa Damico, partner and chief…
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InfoMoney: 02/03/2023
InfoMoney: 02/03/2023 Investment shrinks in 4Q22 Andrea Damico – partner and chief economist at Armor Capital – also highlighted the strong investments drop in that period, after important advances…
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InfoMoney: 01/03/2023
InfoMoney: 01/03/2023 High-interest rates impact Andrea Damico, partner, and chief economist at Armor Capital, foresees GDP stability in 4Q22, reflecting the positive services sector performance in that period.…
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Broadcast: 17/02/2023
Broadcast: 17/02/2023 Armor Capital’s chief economist, Andréa Damico, observes that, given the relevant domestic data releases, the exchange rate reacted mainly to his week’s political news. Despite no further details,…
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Valor Investe: 07/02/2023
Valor Investe: 07/02/2023 Positive signalization to the Finance Ministry, but maintaining its independence The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) tried to send a positive message to the Finance Ministry in…
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InfoMoney: 01/02/2023
InfoMoney: 01/02/2023 Andrea Damico, partner, and chief economist at Armor Capital, joined the InfoMoney livestream about the Copom decision last week. She highlighted the most important topics on the Copom…
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Valor Econômico: 25/01/2023
Valor Econômico: 25/01/2023 Armor Capital’s chief economist, Andréa Damico, observed that Brazilian mid-month inflation (IPCA-15) showed a 5.87% increase in 12 months in January, compared to the 5.90% advance in…
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Broadcast: 01/16/2023
Broadcast: 01/16/2023 SPECIAL: FOCUS REACTS TO RISK OF IPCA’S TARGETS REVISION WITH FISCAL FEARS AND BCB DIRECTOR’S INDICATION According to the Armor Capital chief economist, Andrea Damico, the…
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Valor Econômico: 01/11/2023
Valor Econômico: 01/11/2023 “Despite the higher result in December, commodity prices in BRL and wholesale prices, with industrial core showing deflation, are compatible with these manufacturing prices’ downward trend”, affirms…
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BM&C Podcast – Marcelo Alonso: 12/19/2022
BM&C Podcast – Marcelo Alonso: 12/19/2022 I was invited by “Invight” to attend their new podcast with BM&C News. Thank you for the opportunity, Pedro Crespi and Marco Saravalle, it…
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O Globo: 12/07/2022
O Globo: 12/07/2022 On the contrary, Andrea Damico, partner, and chief economist at Armor Capital, believes that a more negative scenario has become more likely, with a higher inflation…
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TradeMap: 12/07/2022
TradeMap: 12/07/2022 According to Andrea Damico, partner, and chief economist at Armor Capital, the Central Bank (BC) intensified its concerns with the fiscal outlook, which had been already expected…
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Folha de São Paulo: 12/06/2022
Folha de São Paulo: 12/06/2022 Andrea Damico, partner, and chief economist at Armor Capital, affirms that the R$ 150 billion or R$ 200 billion of extra spending will imply…
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Reuters
“The Central Bank forecasts, mainly for 2023, called my attention. They consider the non-reinstatement of fuel prices taxes as a downward risk to the inflation outlook. But there was also…
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CEIC Data Brasil Event
This morning was full of knowledge interchanges at our edition of CEIC Data Talk, which held the theme: Brazilian economic post-election outlook. Our guests, Andrea Bastos Damico and Roberio Costa,…
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CNN Brasil: 11/24/2022
CNN Brasil: 11/24/2022 According to Andrea Damico, partner and chief economist at Armor Capital, the still high interest rate scenario in the first half of the year is a…
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Estadão: 11/18/2022
Public Debt If the PEC’s proposal does not be modified, Armor Capital estimates that the country's gross public debt could reach 95% of GDP by 2026 from around 77% expected…
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Estadão: 11/17/2022
The strong increase in public debt path simulation considers that the Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC) will not be changed at Congress. This estimation, therefore, may change depending on PEC’s draft…
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Estadão: 10/22/2022
Estadão: 10/22/2022 Considering Andrea Damico, partner and chief economist at Armor Capital, forecasts, after three years of upside pressures, food-at-home prices (3.5%) will increase less than the whole IPCA…
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InfoMoney: 11/18/2022
“It is a severe scenario. On the fiscal balance front, the PEC (Constitutional Amendment Proposal) brings a totally opposite signal of fiscal irresponsibility", says Andrea Damico, partner and chief economist…
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O Globo: 10/11/2022
O Globo: 10/11/2022 Andrea Damico, chief economist at Armor Capital, agrees: There would be room for a 5% gasoline and 10% diesel prices adjustments, however it is very unlikely…
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Bloomberg Línea: 10/02/2022
Bloomberg Línea: 10/02/2022 “Even though the GDP has been surprising to the upside, we see a more challenging period ahead, especially next year, given the monetary tightening”, says Andrea…
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Valor Econômico: 09/03/2022
Valor Econômico: 09/03/2022 “In a certain way, this gap reduction supports the Real performance”, says the partner and chief economist at Armor Capital, Andrea Damico. She notes that the…
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InfoMoney: 08/31/2022
InfoMoney: 08/31/2022 “We mainly highlight the services rendered to families performance, a group that has not returned yet to its the pre-pandemic level and may keep benefited the economic growth…
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Valor Econômico: 08/17/2022
Real depreciates after unsurprising Fed’s Minutes The Real upward trend lost strength throughout the day, as foreign capital inflow counterbalanced the negative expectations before the minutes release. “The market apparently…
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CNN Brasil: 08/15/2022
CNN Brasil: 08/15/2022 Partner and chief economist at Armor Capital, Andrea Damico, has explained in an interview to CNN Brazil, the factors that has been favoring the fuel prices…
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Valor Investe: 08/09/22
Valor Investe: 08/09/22 Monetary Policy Committee Minutes reinforce 13.75% scenario for SELIC rate for a longer period, says Armor The institution expects that the Central Bank will reduce the…
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Valor Econômico: 07/26/22
Valor Econômico: 07/26/22 Link: https://valor.globo.com/brasil/noticia/2022/07/27/combustivel-recua-e-previa-da-inflacao-desacelera-em-julho.ghtml
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Valor Econômico: 07/20/2022
Valor Econômico: 20/07/2022 Armor Capital estimates a 0.15 p.p. impact on inflation, resulting in a declining 2022 IPCA forecast to 7.3%, says the chief economist Andrea Damico. Economists calculate…
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Valor Econômico: 07/11/2022
Valor Econômico: 07/11/2022 Risk of global deceleration grows, but recession is not clear yet, says Andrea Damico According to Armor Capital chief economist, the main doubt about a…
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Investing: 07/01/2022
Investing: 07/01/2022 “Several data released during this week pointed to a higher chance of recession in the United States. Theoretically, a weaker American economy tends to weaken the dollar.…
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Folha de São Paulo: 06/23/2022
Folha de São Paulo: 06/23/2022 Andrea Damico, Armor Capital chief economist, also considers that it is not the ideal moment to announce changes in inflation target. According to her,…
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O Globo: 06/21/2022
O Globo: 06/21/2022 According to Andrea Damico, Armor Capital’s chief economist, the Copom minutes were not that hawkish, because the Central Bank signed more than once that it will likely…
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IstoÉ: 06/15/2022
IstoÉ: 06/15/2022 ANDREA DAMICO, PARTNER AND CHIEF ECONOMIST, ARMOR CAPITAL “The fact that it (Central Bank) recognizes that there should be a smaller increase than 50 bps –…
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O Globo: 06/15/2022
O Globo: 06/15/2022 Andrea Damico, Armor Capital chief economist, highlights that despite an even stronger Fed Funds increase tomorrow, Brazilian Central Bank should keep a 50 bps Selic rate…
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O Globo: 06/09/2022
Before expecting a Selic rate slightly above 14%, Andrea Damico, chief economist at Armor Capital, now sees more chances of the Central Bank delivering a less intense monetary tightening on…
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