InfoMoney: 01/03/2023
High-interest rates impact
Andrea Damico, partner, and chief economist at Armor Capital, foresees GDP stability in 4Q22, reflecting the positive services sector performance in that period. “However, we expect a negative contribution from the industrial and retail sectors.”
Andrea believes that the result to be released tomorrow will confirm the current economic deceleration. “The tightening monetary cycle started the year before, which impacted the economy and resulted in this weaker activity performance in the last quarter of 2022.”
The Armor Capital’s chief economist reinforced that the more modest global growth also impacts Brazilian activity, but the most determinant factor was the monetary cycle.
4Q22 GDP result may reflect the activity slowdown at the end of the year, according to analysts
Forecasts point to stability at the margin. The market also expects a 3% growth in 2022, driven by the services sector.
Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, which will be released this Thursday morning (2nd) by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics), may reinforce that activity lost strength in 4Q22, reflecting the monetary and credit tightening. Analysts and economists consulted by InfoMoney believe that the GDP registered relative stability at the margin, with forecasts oscillating from a slight fall to a marginal increase.
