Buysidebrazil / Ariana Zerbinatti: We see a R$ 107,5 billion deficit for the Central Government by 2023
Buysidebrazil partner and senior economist Ariana Zerbinatti projects a primary deficit of R$ 107.5 billion [US$ 22.3 billion] for the central government at the end of the year, pulled by the expectation of increased expenses, which could already be observed in the May primary result, released earlier by the National Treasury.
On this reading, the central government had net outflows of R$ 45.014 billion [US$ 9.4 billion], a result in line with the median of estimates collected by Projections Broadcast, which points to a deficit of R$ 45.640 billion [US$ 9.51 billion] in May, with a deficit of R$ 57.0 billion [US$ 11.86 billion] and R$ 22.40 billion [US$ 4.67 billion].
In May, revenues were up 3.7% in real terms compared to the same month last year. Year-to-date, there was a decrease of 1.2%. Expenses, on the other hand, grew 13.3% in May, in inflation-adjusted terms. In 2023, the change was positive by 5.1%.
“In this increase in expenses in the month we see a strong contribution from spending on Bolsa Família and the payment of precatories, which had a different calendar this year,” says Zerbinatti. “At the same time, personnel expenses have increased well, due to server readjustments, and should continue to put pressure on government accounts,” he adds.
On the other hand, the analyst points out that net Revenue benefited from gains in social security Revenue, in the wake of a still-warm job market.
Source: Broadcast
