Selic Rate (COPOM) – 01/31/2024
The statement brought little change compared to the last meeting, both in projections and in the tone of the statement.
Selic Rate: Decrease of 50 basis points (to 11.25%) as expected. We maintain the expectation of the terminal rate at 8.75%, still with cuts of 0.5 percentage points, since the phrase “reduction of the same magnitude in the next meetings” was kept.
External Scenario: Slightly milder tone. Despite threats to freight prices (which may be addressed in the minutes), the Central Bank preferred to mention the discussion about interest rate cuts in developed countries.
Projections: Remained at 3.5% and 3.2% for IPCA, in 2024 and 2025, respectively – even with the worsening suggested by the simulation of the Central Bank’s model, which mainly reflected the more depreciated exchange rate (rounded to R$ 4.95, as mentioned).
