Highlight the significant dissent, despite a tougher tone and removal of forward guidance. The new baseline scenario includes more uncertainties in the domestic and external environment.
Selic Rate: Decrease of 0.25 pp, as expected – to 10.50%.
Inflation: Tougher stance, emphasizing the resilient domestic labor market, despite the current deceleration trend. Regarding projections, the reference scenario has shifted to 3.8% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, while administered prices rose to 4.8% and 4.0%, respectively.
Fiscal: Also tougher, reaffirming that a credible fiscal policy committed to debt sustainability contributes to anchoring expectations and reducing risk premiums.
External Scenario: Highlight the strength of activity in the US, in line with recent speeches by Campos Neto.
Expectation: For now, we maintain our expectation of another 25-point cut at the next meeting. However, the bias is toward lower interest rates in 2025.
