Still heated economic activity data (PMIs) in the United States support a more hawkish view by FED members. – 05/24
The upside surprises in the May PMI data, particularly in the services sector, indicate that U.S. economic activity is likely to remain strong in the second quarter of the year, consistent with our scenario of the Fed Funds rate easing only starting in 2025.
In Brazil, speeches by members of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reinforced the commitment to converge inflation to the target and the need for caution in the next steps.
Finally, on the fiscal front, robust revenue collection in April and the release of the bimonthly revenue and expenditure report were the highlights of the week. Incorporating the extraordinary credit measures directed to the state of Rio Grande do Sul, we revised our central government primary deficit expectation to R$ 75.5 billion in 2024.
For more information, please check our Weekly Report 65.
