Economic activity surprises in the second quarter and raises growth forecasts for the year – 09/06
After stronger sector data in June, the GDP for Q2 2024 confirmed the resilience of economic activity. Although a slowdown in fiscal stimulus and labor market growth is expected in the second half of the year, we have revised our GDP forecast to 2.9% for 2024. Regarding inflation, we have revised our 2024 forecast from 4.5% to 4.6%, considering the impact of changes in tariff flags this year. In the United States, employment data showed a gradual weakening, reinforcing the expectation of a more moderate pace at the beginning of the rate-cut cycle in FED Funds. Therefore, we maintain our view of the start of the monetary easing cycle in September, following a pace of 25bps until the end of the year.
For more information, please check our Weekly Report 80.
