Domestic activity and US inflation contributed to the reduction of risk premiums this week (01/17)
Service readings consolidated weaker activity in November, with the predominant indication of continued cooling based on leading indicators for the coming months.
On the other hand, the IBC-Br registered a positive change on the margin, placing an upward bias for GDP growth forecasts for the fourth quarter, although weaker levels of economic activity are expected ahead. For now, we maintain our GDP forecast for 2024 at 3.4% and for 2025 at 1.8%.
In the external environment, the week was marked by more moderate results of US inflation. However, considering potential inflationary pressures from the future Trump administration, we maintain our expectation of a 0.25pp interest rate cut in June, for now. Our estimates are mainly subject to the inauguration of the president-elect and his first actions and measures next week.
For more information, please check our Weekly Report 96
