In the United States, the FOMC cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, but the signals regarding the next steps took center stage. Despite the more dovish tone of the statement, with softer inflationary concerns and greater emphasis on labor market deceleration, indications of a pause in early 2026 were evident. No less important than interest rate policy, however, was the announcement of increased T-bill purchases by $40 billion monthly. Although not formally classified as Quantitative Easing, whose main purpose is to push long-term rates down through direct purchases of longer-duration securities, by absorbing a significant portion of the market’s short-term issuances, the Fed could induce investors to migrate to longer maturities, generating an effect similar to traditional QE, albeit in a milder and more indirect way.
In Brazil, the Copom unanimously maintained the Selic at 15.0%, but the tone was more hawkish than expected. The retention of the excerpt about not hesitating to resume the adjustment cycle represents a significant barrier to easing in January, since without its removal, additional communication would be required in the interval between meetings, which could be interpreted as inconsistency in signaling. For Galípolo, who is still consolidating his credibility as chairman, an abrupt shift in guidance would be counterproductive. Given this scenario, we have revised our expectation for the start of the cutting cycle to March 2026, but with a first cut of 50 basis points instead of the previously expected 25, enabled by the greater safety margin provided by the prolongation of the current monetary stance.
