SPECIAL REPORT Macro Team
Outlook for 2026: In this Special Report, we present our expectations for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026. Overall, we assess that the environment should become somewhat more constructive, although the domestic electoral cycle introduces a high degree of uncertainty. In our baseline scenario, we project the exchange rate at BRL 5.50/USD, continued disinflation, further deceleration in economic activity, and the beginning of a monetary easing cycle. In the external environment, we expect the Fed to continue cutting rates, amid moderate growth in U.S. GDP, while inflation still reflects one-off tariff pass-throughs and a gradual slowdown in services inflation.
