WEEKLY REPORT 146
On “Super Wednesday,” the Fed and Copom are expected to keep interest rates unchanged – 01/23
✅ The Fed is signaling a pause in the easing cycle after three consecutive cuts, assessing that monetary policy remains at a moderately restrictive and well-calibrated level. Recent data point to a still-resilient labor market, inflation with temporary pressures in seasonal items, and slower disinflation in services, while economic activity remains relatively strong, albeit with uneven dynamics. In this context, we expect the FOMC to keep interest rates unchanged at the next meeting.
✅ Copom is expected to keep the Selic rate at 15.0% at the next meeting, in an atypical institutional environment and with a reduced committee composition , while gradually signaling the potential start of an easing cycle from March 2026. Inflation expectations remain stable, with disinflation under way, albeit slowly—especially in services—while economic activity shows mixed signals, combining a gradual slowdown with pockets of resilience. Against this backdrop, communication is likely to become more flexible and data-dependent, preparing the market for the start of monetary easing only in March 2026 .
