WEEKLY REPORT 145
Domestic activity surprises, while disinflation and institutional risks gain traction in the United States – 16/01
✅ In Brazil, the latest data reinforced the notion that the late-2025 slowdown in activity has unfolded gradually, with sectoral heterogeneity and no abrupt break in the short term. Overall, the indicators continue to point to a soft landing, with domestic demand still providing support and the output gap closing at a more moderate pace. In light of recent surprises, we revised our GDP projection for 2025 to 2.2 percent and maintained 1.8 percent for 2026.
✅ In the United States, the December data suggest a continuation of the disinflationary process alongside a gradual cooling of demand. Overall, the picture remains consistent with controlled deceleration in activity, allowing the Federal Reserve more patience in 2026 without requiring an immediate policy response.
✅ Institutionally, the week brought an escalation involving the Federal Reserve, amid rising tensions between the White House, Congress and external monetary authorities regarding the independence of US monetary policy. The situation gained traction after Jerome Powell reported subpoenas from the Department of Justice which, according to him, form part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to pressure for rate cuts and constrain the central bank’s autonomy ahead of his succession in May
