WEEKLY REPORT After more hawkish remarks from Central Bank officials, we revised our Selic rate forecast to 13% by December 2026 – 04/17
✅ The week was dominated by the escalation and subsequent partial easing of tensions in the Middle East, with a strong impact on oil prices and risk aversion, although the environment remains highly uncertain. With economic data taking a back seat, the global outlook continues to be driven mainly by geopolitical risks and energy price dynamics.
✅ In Brazil, the combination of resilient activity, worsening inflation expectations, and a more hawkish tone from the Central Bank led to a revision of the Selic rate to 13%. Despite some positive signals in activity, the broader picture remains one of gradual slowdown, while deteriorating expectations and the shift in Central Bank communication reinforce a more cautious stance and support a scenario of more limited rate cuts ahead.
