MONTHLY REPORT
Monthly Scenario: Breaking Down Our Forecasts – February/26
✅ In this report, we outline the main divergences relative to market consensus projections for 2026.
✅ In the United States, we believe the Fed will continue to place significant weight on the employment mandate, which, in our view, allows for two rate cuts in the second half of the year, even with inflation and activity projections above those of the market.
✅ In Brazil, our assumption of a weaker dollar, more benign inflation and moderating activity opens space for a more favorable interest-rate trajectory than currently priced, with the Selic converging to a lower terminal level over the course of the year.
