WEEKLY REPORT Copom and FOMC: decisions in line with expectations, with a more hawkish tone – 04/30
✅ In Brazil, Copom delivered a 25bps cut but with a more hawkish tone , highlighting upward revisions to inflation and increased concern about second-round effects, suggesting greater caution and a potentially higher terminal rate. Despite a softer-than-expected IPCA-15, core inflation remains pressured, while the labor market continues to show resilience, with strong job creation and rising wage mass. In this context, we expect the continuation of 25bps cuts, with a terminal Selic rate of 13.0% in 2026.
✅ In the international scenario, both the Fed and ECB kept interest rates unchanged , maintaining a cautious and slightly hawkish stance, reinforcing a data-dependent approach and reducing the likelihood of near-term cuts. The combination of resilient activity and inflation pressures, alongside rising energy prices amid Middle East tensions, supports a more cautious global monetary policy outlook.
