🔆 BUYSIDEBRAZIL | WEEKLY REPORT Central Bank communication reinforces expectations of continued easing – Jun 26
✅ In Brazil, the Central Bank’s communication was the main highlight of the week. The release of the Copom minutes, the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), and the subsequent press conference conveyed a more dovish message than initially suggested by the June policy statement, with particular emphasis on keeping the 2028Q1 inflation forecast unchanged at 3.2%, despite the upward revision of the 2027Q4 projection. Taken together, the documents clarified the interpretation of the relevant monetary policy horizon and reinforced our expectation that the calibration cycle will continue, keeping our baseline call for another 25bp rate cut at the August meeting.
✅ In the United States, the third estimate of first-quarter GDP and the May PCE inflation report reinforced a scenario of gradual economic moderation, but without materially changing the outlook for the Federal Reserve. Although inflation came in marginally below expectations, the composition remained pressured by services, while economic activity continued to show resilience, supporting the view that the Fed will remain data-dependent in guiding future monetary policy decisions.
