🔆 BUYSIDEBRAZIL | WEEKLY REPORT U.S. labor market and Brazilian domestic activity lose momentum – Jul 3
✅ In the United States, the week was marked by a full slate of labor market releases which, despite delivering mixed signals, ultimately reinforced the view of a gradual moderation in employment conditions. The main highlight was the June Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed a more pronounced slowdown in job creation. Payrolls increased by just 57k, well below expectations, while sizable downward revisions to April and May materially reduced the recent pace of employment growth. Despite this, the unemployment rate declined to 4.2%, largely reflecting a lower labor force participation rate, while wage growth remained firm.
✅ In Brazil, weaker-than-expected activity indicators reinforced signs that the economy is losing momentum following the stronger performance recorded in the first quarter. The main highlight was the May Caged report, which showed formal job creation well below expectations, with particularly weak hiring in the retail and agriculture sectors. On the activity front, industrial production also surprised to the downside, declining 0.2% MoM and interrupting the sequence of positive monthly readings seen earlier this year. On the political front, the latest AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed President Lula widening his lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions, pointing to a more favorable electoral backdrop for the incumbent government than in previous polls.
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