🔆 BUYSIDEBRAZIL | WEEKLY REPORT
U.S. employment surprises to the upside, while Brazil’s GDP reinforces signs of a slowdown – 04/09
✅ In the United States, labor market data sent mixed signals throughout the week. JOLTS and ADP continued to point to a gradual moderation in labor market conditions, while the August payroll report showed a stronger recovery in job creation at the margin, accompanied by upward revisions to previous months and a stable unemployment rate. Overall, the data remain consistent with a labor market that is gradually moderating but still close to equilibrium, reducing the need for additional support to activity and allowing the Fed to maintain a greater focus on inflation developments. Against this backdrop, the labor market data remain consistent with our expectation of a rate hike at the September meeting.
✅ In Brazil, second-quarter GDP surprised to the upside at the headline level, but its composition reinforced signs of a gradual slowdown in economic activity. Growth remained significantly supported by Agriculture, while Industry and Services posted more moderate performances and domestic demand showed weaker momentum, with household consumption declining and domestic absorption remaining broadly stable. In this sense, the result reinforces our expectation of a slowdown in activity throughout the second half of the year and remains consistent with our 1.9% GDP growth forecast for 2026, while also reinforcing a more favorable environment for our expectation of another 25 bps rate cut by the Copom in September.
