Weekly Reports
WEEKLY REPORT Activity loses momentum in Brazil as Middle East tensions raise global risks – Mar 06
WEEKLY REPORT Activity loses momentum in Brazil as Middle East tensions raise global risks – Mar 06 ✅ Domestically, the data released throughout the week reinforce a narrative of gradual…
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WEEKLY REPORT Challenging data week in Brazil and a lighter calendar in the United States – 02/27
WEEKLY REPORT Challenging data week in Brazil and a lighter calendar in the United States – 02/27 ✅ In Brazil, the week was marked by fiscal and credit data that,…
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WEEKLY REPORT A lighter data week reinforces signs of gradual slowdown in Brazil and moderating growth in the US – 02/20
WEEKLY REPORT A lighter data week reinforces signs of gradual slowdown in Brazil and moderating growth in the US - 02/20 ✅ The December IBC-Br reinforced the perception of a…
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WEEKLY REPORT Activity and inflation data reinforce our expectations for the interest rate cycle in Brazil and the United States – 02/13
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MONTHLY REPORT Monthly Scenario: Breaking Down Our Forecasts – February/26
MONTHLY REPORT Monthly Scenario: Breaking Down Our Forecasts –…
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WEEKLY REPORT On “Super Wednesday,” the Fed and Copom are expected to keep interest rates unchanged – 01/23
WEEKLY REPORT 146 On “Super Wednesday,” the Fed and Copom are expected to keep interest rates unchanged – 01/23 ✅ The Fed is signaling a pause in…
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WEEKLY REPORT Domestic activity surprises, while disinflation and institutional risks gain traction in the United States – 16/01
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Weekly Report A resilient labor market and a turbulent international backdrop mark the start of the year – 01/09
Weekly Report 144 A…
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SPECIAL REPORT: Outlook for 2026
SPECIAL REPORT Macro Team Outlook for 2026: In this Special Report, we present our expectations for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026. Overall, we assess that the environment should become somewhat…
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Weekly Report : COPOM e FOMC: A Tale of Two Monetary Policies
In the United States, the FOMC cut the interest rate by 25 basis points, but the signals regarding the next steps took center stage.…
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Weekly Report: Subdued inflation and a resilient labor market shape the domestic agenda – 11/28
Weekly Report 141 Subdued inflation and a resilient…
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Weekly Report : We have revised our outlook and expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in December amid elevated uncertainty
Weekly Report 140 We have revised our outlook…
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Weekly Report Copom minutes signal stronger conviction that monetary policy is working while economic data support the assessment – 14/11
Weekly Report 139 Copom minutes signal…
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Weekly Report 138 Copom acknowledges improvement in inflation but retains hawkish passages leaving the market split on the timing of rate cuts – November 7
Weekly Report 138 Copom acknowledges improvement…
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Powell surprises with hawkish tone after Fed rate cut, while Brazil’s labor market remains strong – Oct 31
Weekly Report 137 ✅ The Fed reduced…
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Weekly Report 136 IPCA-15 shows relief in underlying inflation, reinforcing our view of a Selic cut in January. US CPI also eases – October 24
Weekly Report 136 ✅ In the United States,…
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razil’s economy shows moderate growth as Central Bank signals rates will remain high for longer – Oct 17
Weekly Report 135 ✅ Brazil’s economic activity posted a moderate advance in August, recovering part of the losses from early in the third quarter but still expanding at a contained…
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Domestic inflation shows a more benign trajectory, while the fiscal impasse underscores the government’s coordination challenges – 10/10
Weekly Report 134 ✅ On the domestic front, Brazilian inflation once again surprised to the downside in September . The headline IPCA rose 0.48% MoM, below our forecast (0.53%) and…
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US shutdown halts data releases, while labor market and fiscal matters lead the domestic agenda – 10/03
Weekly Report 133 ✅ US shutdown halts official data releases, while private ADP figures highlight continued labor market slowdown. The United States government entered a shutdown after the budget…
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All Eyes on Monetary Policy: Fed Signals Three Cuts in 2025 While Copom Maintains a Cautious Tone 09/19
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Brazilian economy slows in Q2, and weaker U.S. job data increase chances of additional Fed Funds cuts – 05/09
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Institutional crisis at the Fed intensifies amid fraud allegations against a board member, while domestic inflation shows services pressure – 29/08
✅ In the United States, President Donald Trump and Governor Lisa Cook are engaged in a legal dispute over suspected mortgage fraud. The institutional crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve…
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Powell’s Jackson Hole speech reaffirms bets on U.S. rate cuts, while Lula regains popularity in national polls – 08/22
Weekly Report 127 Following the release of the now-dated FOMC minutes, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaled the start of rate cuts in September. In the minutes, most members opted…
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Domestic activity and inflation data reinforce the slowdown narrative, while the government unveils a package to offset the impact of Trump’s tariff hikes (August 15, 2025)
Weekly Report 126 Consolidating second-quarter data, the IBGE’s monthly surveys for June reinforced the picture of a weakening economy. In retail sales, performance was well below market expectations, with declines…
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Buysidebrazil expects the Selic easing cycle to begin in January 2026 (August 8, 2025)
Weekly Report 125 In monetary policy, COPOM maintains a hawkish tone and reiterates its commitment to bringing inflation back to target. The minutes of the July meeting reiterated the core…
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Despite the noise, Brazil has a more positive week (August 1st 2025)
Weekly Report 124 ✅ The implementation of tariffs on Brazilian imports, expected today, was brought forward, but the United States surprised by exempting a long list of products. Many sectors…
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Local indicators take a back seat to heightened global uncertainty – July 25 / 2025
Weekly Report 123 ✅ Federal revenue surprises with IOF collections and government eases budget freeze. Federal revenue totaled BRL 234.5 billion in June, marking a real increase of 6.6 percent…
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Uncertainty is the key word in domestic and external scenarios – June 13 / 2025
Weekly Report 117 The fiscal situation was the focus of the news this week, with emphasis on the new decree publication that deals with the increase in the IOF and…
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U.S. Labor Market in the spotlight, while IOF developments stay on Brazil’s radar – June 06 / 2025
Weekly Report 116 Following mixed data throughout the week, the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report surprised to the upside, reinforcing the view of a still resilient labor market. The Payrolls recorded…
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Weekly Report 115
Data indicates stronger growth in 2025, but inflation allows interest rates to remain unchanged - 05/30 First-quarter GDP grew 1.4% QoQ, in line with our projection, indicating that the economy's…
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Analysis of the US-Europe trade war – CNN MONEY Brazil report
Analysis of the trade war between the US and Europe on CNN MONEY Brazil yesterday, with journalist Gabriel Monteiro. Andrea Damico’s participation begins at minute 0:08. This is a report…
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Weekly Report 114
Government outperforms expectations on budget freeze, but IOF hike on credit and FX transactions overshadows positive news – 05/23 In its first fiscal report of the year, the revenue and…
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Weekly Report 113
Below-expected activity data and Copom minutes reinforce our expectation of a halt in interest rates in June – 05/16 The Copom minutes confirmed the message of the statement that the…
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Weekly Report 112
Central Bank adopts dovish tone in COPOM statement, signaling potential end to tightening cycle – 05/09 In a unanimous decision, the Central Bank raised the interest rate to 14.75% per…
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Weekly Report 111
Copom and Fed to adopt cautious tone next week - 05/02 Next week, the Brazilian Central Bank should slow down the pace of monetary tightening, but with a still tough…
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Weekly Report 110
April’s IPCA-15 keeps a negative qualitative tone in a week marked by milder speeches from Central Bank directors - 04/25 Although the figure was marked by a downside surprise in…
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Weekly Report 109
Trade tensions continue to dominate the global market and in Brazil the highlight was the PLDO - 04/17 Since the announcement of import tariffs by the United States last week,…
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Weekly Report 108
Volatility sets the tone in the markets - 04/11 Since the announcement of import tariffs by the United States last week, assets have faced great volatility, both due to uncertainties…
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Weekly Report 107
Trump announces import tariffs and raises the likelihood of a U.S. recession - 04/04 On Liberation Day, the United States imposes at least 10% retaliatory tariffs on all imports, with…
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Weekly Report 106
After recent communications from the Central Bank, we revised our terminal Selic expectation from 15.5% to 15% - 03/28 Although the inflation model used by the Central Bank suggests a…
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Weekly Report 105
In a week marked by monetary policy decisions, FOMC and COPOM meet expectations, although with mixed communications - 03/21 In Brazil, the Central Bank followed the guidance established in…
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Weekly Report 104
Copom’s Decision Should Be Accompanied by a Hawkish Statement, Indicating Data Dependence in Upcoming Meetings (03/14) Next week, the Copom will raise interest rates by 1 percentage point, as…
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Weekly Report 103
After continuous upward surprises in previous quarters, the growth in the fourth quarter was lower than expected (07/03) After continuous upward surprises in previous quarters, the growth in the quarter…
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Weekly Report 102
Domestic and international scenarios remain challenging for conducting monetary policy (02/28) This week, data reinforced the resilience of domestic economic activity, with inflation and the labor market still showing strength.…
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Weekly Report 101
In a week with few economic data releases, IBC-Br surprises expectations and Trump announces new import tariffs (02/21) IBC-Br registers a sharper drop in margin, but shows consistent growth over…
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Weekly Report 100
Inflation data stood out in the domestic and American agenda and pointing still to contractionary monetary policies (14/02) January inflation continued to be pressured in terms of composition, and…
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Weekly Report 99
After more dovish readings in the COPOM statement, the Central Bank reaffirms a tough stance and reinforces its commitment to anchoring inflation expectations (02/07) In the document, the Committee…
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Weekly Report 98
Week Marked by Monetary Policy Decisions in a More Inflationary Environment In Brazil, the Copom raised interest rates to 13.25% and issued a neutral to slightly dovish statement. We project…
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Weekly Report 97
Following the guidance, COPOM should raise the Selic rate by 100bps while keeping a hawkish communication - 24/01 In the week of the inauguration of the new US president, Trump…
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Weekly Report 96
Domestic activity and US inflation contributed to the reduction of risk premiums this week (01/17) Service readings consolidated weaker activity in November, with the predominant indication of continued cooling based…
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Special Report – Outlook for 2025
Scenario Revision - Outlook for 2025 In this Special Report, we present our expectations for the macroeconomic scenario in 2025. Overall, we recognize that the prospective scenario appears more challenging,…
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Weekly Report 95
BC Interventions in the Forex Market Mark Week with Record BRL Levels Due to Seasonality and Risk Aversion (12/20) The Copom minutes reinforced the need for a predictable, credible, and…
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Weekly Report 94
With a hawkish tone, COPOM raises the Selic rate by 100 basis points and anticipates two more hikes of the same magnitude - 12/13 At December's meeting, the Selic rate…
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Weekly Report 93
Next week, the Copom is expected to accelerate the pace of the ongoing monetary tightening due to the deterioration of inflation expectations - 12/06 Since the last Copom meeting, the…
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Weekly Report 87
With qualitative deterioration, current inflation reinforces caution in monetary policy - 10/25 Although the rise at the margin reflects the effects of the change in electricity tariff flags in…
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Weekly Report 86
Noisy domestic environment negatively impacts the market and intensifies uncertainties about meeting the fiscal target - 10/18 In a week relatively lacking in domestic economic data, the attention was…
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Weekly Report 85
Current inflation rises with regulated prices, although underlying services ease at the margin - 10/11 With the change in the electricity tariff flag to red level 1, electricity was…
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Weekly Report 84
Moody’s upgrades Brazil’s rating amid market uncertainties over public finances - 10/04 After improving Brazil's rating outlook in May, the credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded the country’s credit rating…
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Weekly Report 83
Incorporating the revision of the Central Bank's output gap, Selic is expected to reach 12.50% at the end of the tightening cycle - 09/27 In the September Quarterly Inflation…
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Weekly Report 82
Harsher communication and a significant rise in the inflation projections from the Central Bank's model suggest a more aggressive rate hike cycle - 09/20 In a week marked by…
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Weekly Report 81
We expect the Central Bank to keep the interest rate at 10.50% in the next COPOM decision - 09/13 Since the last meeting, considering the alternative scenario of a…
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Weekly Report 80
Economic activity surprises in the second quarter and raises growth forecasts for the year - 09/06 After stronger sector data in June, the GDP for Q2 2024 confirmed the…
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Weekly Report 79
Deceleration of underlying services eases additional inflationary pressure for the Central Bank - 08/30 The August IPCA-15 presented a more positive composition, with surprises concentrated in more volatile items.…
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Weekly Report 78
BC Members Reiterate in Speeches that Doing What is Necessary to Meet the Inflation Target is Not Guidance for a Rate Hike - 08/23 In a week lacking domestic…
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Weekly Report 77
The monetary easing cycle in the United States is expected to begin in September, with consecutive cuts until the end of the year - 08/16 With recent data on…
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Weekly Report 76
Scenario evolution had a bullish impact on our currency, interest rate, and inflation forecasts (Aug 9) The Copom minutes had a tougher tone, counterbalancing the market's dovish view regarding…
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Weekly Report 75
Central Bank raises tone regarding the last COPOM meeting but frustrates market expectations - 02/08 The maintenance of the interest rate at 10.50% per annum was widely expected by…
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Weekly Report 74
Current inflation reaccelerating with unanchored expectations in the week preceding Copom's monetary policy decision (07/26) Since the last meeting, the variables observed by the Central Bank have mostly shown…
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Weekly Report 73
Economic activity in the United States reinforces soft landing narrative - 07/19 In the United States, June data showed still strong activity, although inflation has already shown signs of…
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Weekly Report 72
Effects of rains in Rio Grande do Sul lose strength in inflation and activity data - 07/12 With the June data, the current inflation trajectory is more positive, although…
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Weekly Report 71
Spending cuts announcement for 2025 partially alleviates fiscal concerns - 07/05 In a week marked by the exchange rate reaching highs close to R$5.70, President Lula's approval for expense…
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Weekly Report 70
We revised our exchange rate projection for 2024 to R$5.40, and the IPCA is expected to rise this year and next - 06/28 The more constructive bias for the…
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Weekly Report 69
Unanimity among COPOM members reinforces Central Bank's autonomy - 06/21 As expected, the monetary policy committee opted to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 10.50% p.a., halting the downward…
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Weekly Report 67
Economic Scenario Evolution and Speeches Suggest a Pause in Monetary Easing (06/07) This week, the release of the Q1 2024 GDP reinforced the resilience of domestic activity. This dynamic…
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Weekly Report 66
Although the domestic labor market remains strong, underlying inflation makes space for the last cut in the Selic rate. - 05/31 April labor market data continued to positively surprise.…
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Weekly Report 65
Still heated economic activity data (PMIs) in the United States support a more hawkish view by FED members. - 05/24 The upside surprises in the May PMI data, particularly…
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Weekly Report 64
The Copom minutes confirmed our scenario for the Selic rate but impacts from RS changed our growth and inflation forecasts (05/17) The Central Bank's tougher tone in the minutes…
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Weekly Report 63
Despite the more hawkish tone in the statement, dissent among members was a highlight in the COPOM decision – 05/10 As expected, the Central Bank reduced the Selic rate…
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Weekly Report 62
Recent developments in the domestic scenario indicate that the Central Bank is likely to cut 25 basis points at the next Copom decision - 05/03 Except for interest rate…
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Weekly Report 61
With economic growth still at a robust level, the FED is not expected to cut interest rates in 2024, impacting a higher terminal Selic – 04/26 26 Thus, we…
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Weekly Report 60
Internal environment indicates possible new projection revisions - 04/19 The political and fiscal scenario in Brazil has shown significant deterioration marginally. Therefore, the devaluation of the real remains higher…
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Weekly Report 59
With adverse external conditions, the exchange rate will be more depreciated, and the Selic rate will be higher in 2024. - 04/12 With worse consumer inflation data in the…
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Weekly Report 58
With a heated labor market, Fed Funds rate cut in June loses probability - 05/05 Mixed data in the United States has raised uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary…
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Weekly Report 57
With external and internal uncertainties alleviated, Copom maintains the scenario of the monetary policy cycle Copom's minutes confirmed our calibration of smoothing the pace of interest rate cuts at…
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Weekly Report 56
Copom opted for a more cautious stance, however, we kept the Selic rate at 8.75% at the end of the cycle The Central Bank altered its guidance, restricting itself…
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Weekly Report 55
The scenario evolution was neutral for the Copom – 03/15 The February IPCA remained in line with our expectations (0.83%) and reinforced a constructive outlook ahead. This reading is…
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Weekly Report 54
The Real continues with a prospect of appreciation, but subject to the Fed - 08/03 The results remain positive with a good outlook for external accounts. The February trade…
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Weekly Report 53
Modest drop-in services expected to bring 2024 GDP to 1.9% - 03/01 Brazil's growth saw a 2.9% increase in 2023, strongly driven by the agricultural sector, which grew by…
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Weekly Report 52
Record Revenue in January Contributes to a More Constructive Fiscal Scenario on the Margin The record revenue in January has improved the fiscal outlook for the year. Following some…
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Weekly Report 51
The beginning of the Fed Funds rate cuts is expected to occur in June. Recent inflation data in the United States suggest a more cautious stance in monetary policy…
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Weekly Report 50
IPCA is expected to reach 3.6% in 2024. The Central Bank adopted a more hawkish tone in the minutes than in the previous communication, but we still project a…
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Weekly Report 49
Central Bank’s Flight Plan remains unchanged The Copom opted for neutrality, reinforcing that interest rates will continue declining at 50 basis points in the upcoming meetings. Despite threats to…
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Weekly Report 48
We expect the Selic rate to end the year at 8.75% The evolution of the data suggests that the magnitude of the Selic rate cuts should remain at 50…
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Weekly Report 47
The exchange rate is expected to close this year at R$ 4.80 After the decline in key economic activity indicators in October, we observed a recovery in surveys in…
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Weekly Report 46
IPCA for December surprised on the upside, but we continue to envision a benign scenario ahead In December, the IPCA surged to 0.56%, primarily driven by a notable uptick…
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Weekly Report 39 – Inflation continues to lose strength in the short term
Consumer inflation continues on a downward trend, including a slowdown in core prices. This more favorable core price scenario in the short term is one of the factors that will…
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